Bulgaria Analytica - Video Transcript PM promises Russian gas would reach Serbia by May 31, 2020. Is it realistic?

In a move that defies diplomatic bon ton the Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Anatoly Makarov 'leaked' to the RIA "Novosti" news agency that during his recent meeting with the Bulgarian PM Boyko Borisov, the latter had promised that by May 31, 2020, Russian gas would be flowing to Serbia.
All public comments by Russian diplomats posted abroad are coordinated via the information department of the MFA. Hence this is not Makarov's personal decision.
The exact quote is :
"I asked him directly: Mr Boyko Borisov, when will Russian gas go to Serbia?
He replied: May 31.
I said: May 31? Well then, I will report to Moscow that on May 31, gas from Russia through the Balkan gas pipeline (meaning the Turk Stream section passing through Bulgaria) will reach Serbia."
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Bulgaria is purposefully delaying the construction of a continuation of the Turkish Stream across its territory. The underlying message in Putin's angry reaction was - Sofia is again to blame for Gazprom's inability to deliver gas to Bulgaria's neighbors.
The key line in the exasperation of the Russian diplomat is that he and his Ministry have proved unable to execute President Putin's order to secure alternative routes to Ukrainian transit, in time for his boss to play the gas weapon card. That was a must at the Russian President's talks with President Zelensky in Paris on December 9 and on January 8, when he will attend the opening ceremony of the Turk Stream.
The disclosure of information in an exchange between an ambassador and a PM of the host country is highly unusual. This information is meant to be communicated to the Russian government and President in confidence. Going public on a private exchange is somewhat surprising. Still, in this case, this could be deemed an attempt to counter the Bulgarian's PM's narrative and, most importantly, to put pressure on him as the 'deadline' is unattainable.
Come this day, President Putin will have the legitimate right to say - Borisov can't be trusted. As we all know - it is not a matter of personal trust but of a complex blend of interests, where a group of Bulgarian politicians and oligarchs have agreed with Moscow to secure transit of Russian gas to Serbia in return for monetary favors. The last time - with South Stream - the cost of these unmet promises went as high as 800 million euros. This time it could be higher.
Why is the May 31, 2020, deadline unrealistic?
Assurances by the PM that the contractors lay 5 km of pipework a day have already been refuted. On good days, and the max is between 2 and 3 km.
The Bulgarian government has indeed relieved the Arkad EPC contractor of all limitations under the Public Procurement Law. The project's brokers enjoy a free hand in calling upon all necessary and possible resources, including the transfer of Russian companies and equipment from Serbia.
But despite all this, Russian gas won't flow on May 31, nor the pipeline will be able to complete tests, including the gas compressor stations. Least of all, the Bulgarian segment of the Turk Stream will not be given the green light from the EC to operate within the monopoly pattern for Gazprom.
Why is then PM Borissov is putting himself at risk?
The answer is simple - he does not have any choice but to play the PR fiddle in the hope to buy time until he finds the next credible excuse.
Balancing between Scylla and Charybdis, between US and EU sanctions and Putin's threats, is ab initio the worst possible choice for a member of NATO and the EU, with the obligation to treat partners' interests first.