Bulgaria Analytica: Is the Normande format meeting in Paris doomed?

The media coverage of the meeting is full of hype and expectations. The outcome needs to be judged in the context of the strategic turn in relations with Russia that President Macron is seeking. 

Both President Macron and Chancellor Merkel are eager to offer President Putin a way out of the post-Crimea sanctions.  A meeting of the EU Council in January is scheduled to discuss a possible lift of sanctions. 

Berlin wants to see Nord Stream - 2 and a return to 'trade as usual' with Russia. The same applies to President Macron, who is more interested in securing his grip in power in France, and in President Putin cutting support for Le Pen's far-right.

Most of the compromises are expected from the Ukranian President.

The advance prep work to the meeting has taken months, exploring the options for compromise and above all the range of the possible, given Ukrainians growing skepticism of the net worth of dealing with Mr. Putin.

The Russian President made his typical final push before the meeting, defining his red lines. He has also pushed back the meeting with Zelensky to the end of the day to allow for Macron and Merkel to exert enough pressure and melt the Ukranian President's resistance.

Putin has flatly denied expanding the format to include the parties to the Budapest agreement - the UK and the US. He feels comfortable with France and Germany. 

Yet any security deal concerning Ukraine is meaningless without the main guarantors of peace in NATO and the US.

President Putin has also made clear that he will link security issues in Donbas and Lugansk to a possible new gas transit deals. Which has precisely been what former President Poroshenko has warned against?

Any special status of Donbas and Lugansk would be tantamount to the fragmentation of Ukraine. Whatever agreements are reached in Paris; they are unlikely to be received well in Ukraine or NATO. 

Regardless of what Macron vouches for.

The bottom line is - whichever way the meeting goes - President Putin is the only clear winner.

If Zelensky bends - Putin gains - regardless of the post effects in Ukraine.

If the meeting ends with no agreement - which is not the intent of President Macron - the blame will be laid on President Zelensky and France and Germany could claim they have done their best, and it is time to sacrifice Ukraine for the broader EU interests.

One thing is inevitable - President Zelensky's return will not be a glorious one.

Yet another case of the classic Kremlin divide and rule policy.