The attack on Dugina - cui bono ?

Following the assassination of Dugin's daughter, many will jump to a quick conclusion and blame Ukraine. Yet, following the classics of 'Cui bono', this is the least plausible explanation since Kyiv has nothing to gain. So let's make an analytical tour of possible leads to understand the context first and then the content in today's Russia.

1. The assassination might be an inside job, as Dugin is known to have been an FSB informant on opposition figures in Putin's inside circle, including highly empowered oligarchs and opposition figures. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, dozens of VIPs have lost their lives in what is believed to be, staged suicides by Putin's special services. In Kremlin's Byzantine world, the brutal battles between the boyars around the Tsar reach peak levels before a power change. As a result, the army and the security services grew dissatisfied with Putin's war. As the democratic process is blocked, the disappointment turns to violence in the old Russian tradition. As a result, many of Putin's closest oligarchs have lost dearly due to the war and the sanctions and consider him a disposable liability. But before aiming high at the Tzar, removing some of his high-profile kingsmen fits into the tradition.

2. Putin himself had resorted to bombings organized by the FSB killer squads in the past when his power was in danger. Civilian loss of life has never been a barrier when he needs to divert public attention and quell possible revolts as the sanctions start to bite deep. Dugin is a high-profile figure whose assassination could justify another round of violence and brutal attacks against Putin's opposition. The timing is right, as the war in Ukraine generates bad news internally every day, and Putin seems unable to respond. He could crack down on opposition without restraint, but to address mass concerns, he needs a diversion. 

3. The assassination could be extensively used for media purposes to underpin a critical counterpoint of Russian propaganda -  that Ukraine sponsors terrorism. Internationally, Russia was vulnerable precisely because it was on the verge of being declared a state sponsor of terrorism. The very fact that the first comment from officials came from Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry ? and not a statement from the Minister of the Interior, the Prosecutor's Office, the FSB, or Investigative Committee - the usual suspects, speaks of the propaganda value of the attack on Dugina. 

Once bombings started, they indicated catalysis of the political process and a new round of violence, internally towards Putin's opponents and externally towards Ukraine. 

At any rate, whoever is behind Darya Dugin's assassination, the message to Russians and the world is - the frontline runs across Russia.